UNCERTAINTY IN FLOOD FLOWS: A BAYESIAN APPROACH

INCERTITUDE DANS LES DEBITS OF CRUES: APPROCHE BAYESIENNE

A stochastic model for the prediction of the largest exceedance above a given discharge base level, at a given location of a river, has been presented by Todorovic and Zelenhasic. In the present paper a bayesian approach is followed in order to find the distribution function of the exceedance for a given return period when uncertainty arises in the paramaters of the distribution function describing the model. The risks encountered in evaluating this exceedance using different lengths of period of record are compared. /Authors/

• Corporate Authors:

  Elsevier

  Radarweg 29
  Amsterdam,   Netherlands  1043 NX
• Authors:
  • Rousselle, J
  • Hindie, F
• Publication Date: 1976-8

Language

• French

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 341-349
• Serial:
  • Journal of Hydrology
  • Volume: 30
  • Issue Number: 4

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Bayes' theorem; Floods; Flow; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Physical distribution; Rivers; Stochastic processes; Uncertainty
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Old TRIS Terms: Discharge
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Freight Transportation; Highways; Hydraulics and Hydrology;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00157746
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 13 1977 12:00AM