A FORECAST OF AIR TRAVEL AND AIRPORT AND AIRWAY USE IN 1980

This procedure indicates the jet routes used, the mix of aircraft, trip length and number of passengers per flight. Route structures consistent with the growth of travel and its origin and destination distribution can be determined to assist airline planning and shed light on merger or route proposals that may come before the Civil Aeronautics Board. Any national totals can be obtained by simply aggregating over individual routes and airports. United States domestic passenger travel and commercial trunk airline traffic are discussed in this paper. In Section II, a function giving passenger demand for travel between cities is estimated with cross-sectional data. In Section III, a simple model of an airline is developed and its ability to predict flights in domestic city-pair markets is tested. In Section IV, these models are brought together to project passenger demand and airline service patterns. In the last section some rather surprising conclusions are presented.

• Corporate Authors:

  Pergamon Press, Incorporated

  Maxwell House, Fairview Park
  Elmsford, NY  United States  10523
• Authors:
  • DeVany, A S
  • Garges, E H
• Publication Date: 1972-3

Media Info

• Pagination: p. 1-18
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research /UK/
  • Volume: 6
  • Issue Number: 1
  • Publisher: Pergamon Press, Incorporated

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air; Aircraft; Aircraft operations; Airlines; Airports; Forecasting; Jet propelled aircraft; Mathematical models; Origin and destination; Passenger transportation; Passengers; Routes; Traffic estimation; Traffic forecasting; Transportation; Travel demand; Trip length
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Old TRIS Terms: Airline operations; Traffic forecasts; Transportation models and systems
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Terminals and Facilities; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00155545
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transportation Statistical Reference File, TSC
• Report/Paper Numbers: One-Time
• Files: TSR, TRIS
• Created Date: Aug 31 1977 12:00AM