MULTIVARIATE MODELLING OF ACCIDENT RISK ON THE NATIONAL ROAD NETWORK

The modelling of road safety indicators according to temporal ranges and applied to French data dates back to the 1960s. Various models have been developed in order to simulate the changes over time in the number of traffic accidents and victims on a daily, monthly and yearly basis. These models were designed to be descriptive and explanatory, and they have brought to light various short, medium and long term effects. In this paper, the authors intentionally do not discuss modelling for long term trends, based on yearly data with variables representative of population and risk exposure. They are now developing a powerful econometric type of operational monitoring tool, for both short term and medium term, which will measure the impacts of all of the following: economic variables, traffic level, meteorological variables, behavioural variables (speed, using or not using seat belts), and road safety measures. This tool will be used by decision-makers in order to consider the various determining factors of road safety and to quantify the short and medium term impacts of different scenarios for road safety policies.

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  • Corporate Authors:

    PTRC Education and Research Services Limited

    Glenthorne House, Hammersmith Grove
    London W6OL9,   England 
  • Authors:
    • BERGEL, R
  • Conference:
  • Publication Date: 1998

Language

  • English

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00766121
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Report/Paper Numbers: VTI konferens 9A part 6
  • Files: TRIS, ATRI
  • Created Date: Jul 29 1999 12:00AM