ICE FORECASTING LIMITATIONS IMPOSED BY THE ACCURACY OF ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION MODELS

Forecasts produced by the operational prediction model of the National Meteorological Center are examined for errors that may limit the accuracy of sea ice model predictions. Errors in the predicted low-level height gradients and geostrophic winds are found to be no worse in the Arctic than in most mid-latitude land areas. However, the forecast skill approaches zero by 72 hours when the errors in the predicted geostrophic winds typically become as large as the geostrophic winds themselves. It is concluded that the application of the AIDJEX model to sea ice forecasting will be limited much more severely by the accuracy of atmospheric pressure forecasts than by the formulation of the ice dynamics.

• Corporate Authors:

  University of Washington, Seattle

  Arctic Ice Dynamics Joint Experiment Office
  Seattle, WA  United States  98195
• Authors:
  • Walsh, J E
• Publication Date: 1977-5

Media Info

• Pagination: 210 p.
• Serial:
  • Issue Number: 36

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Forecasting; Ice; Weather forecasting
• Candidate Terms: Ice forecasting
• Geographic Terms: Arctic Regions
• Old TRIS Terms: Ice models
• Subject Areas: Marine Transportation; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00156920
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: University of Washington, Seattle
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jul 19 1977 12:00AM