MICROSIMULATION AND ACTIVITY-BASED FORECASTING

This paper provides an overview of the state of the art of microsimulation modeling applied to activity-based travel forecasting. The paper defines what is meant by microsimulation and discusses why microsimulation might be a preferred approach to activity-based forecasting in many applications. The issue of synthesizing and updating characteristics of the population being simulated is addressed in some detail. Examples of various types of microsimulation models which have been developed to date are provided, including microsimulation models of auto ownership, residential mobility, route choice and network performance, as well as activity-based travel forecasting models per se. The paper concludes with a discussion of research development issues associated with the continuing development of operational microsimulation models. These include: further evaluation of population synthesizing and updating methods; determination of appropriate levels of model disaggregation; establishing appropriate linkages between model components; examination of the statistical properties of microsimulation models; and demonstration of the computational feasibility of these very computer-intensive modeling systems.

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• Supplemental Notes:
  • This report is distributed in cooperation with the Technology Sharing Program, Research and Special Programs Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation, Washington, DC 20590.
• Corporate Authors:

  Texas Transportation Institute

  Texas A&M University System, 1600 E Lamar Boulevard
  Arlington, TX  United States  76011
• Authors:
  • Miller, E J
• Conference:
  • Activity-Based Travel Forecasting Conference
  • Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
  • Date: 1996-6-2 to 1996-6-5
• Publication Date: 1997-2

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: p. 151-172
• Monograph Title: ACTIVITY-BASED TRAVEL FORECASTING CONFERENCE, NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA, JUNE 2-5, 1996. SUMMARY, RECOMMENDATIONS, AND COMPENDIUM OF PAPERS

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Development; Forecasting; Microsimulation; Mobility; Networks; Performance; Research; Route choice; Simulation; State of the art; Travel
• Uncontrolled Terms: Activity models; Research and development
• Old TRIS Terms: Network performance
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Research; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00750014
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jun 18 1998 12:00AM