URBAN TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT: THE VIABILITY OF SHORT TERM CONGESTION FORECASTING USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

Artificial neural networks have been considered as an alternative to existing techniques across a broad range of disciplines including transport. Neural computing has advanced considerably in recent years. Viable solutions to forecasting and pattern recognition tasks are now emerging in increasing numbers. This paper reports on research commissioned by the Department of Transport to investigate the potential use of neural networks to predict (the onset of) congestion in an urban context. Key issues are identified as being neural network techniques and their existing applications in transportation and traffic control, sources of data available to a forecasting model and congestion definition and management. To establish whether a neural network forecasting model can be successfully developed and integrated into an urban traffic management system, all these issues must be considered in a coordinated approach. A broad scope of potential applications exists within the remit of forecasting (the onset of) urban congestion. The paper attempts to provide a generic commentary on the options and opportunities available. A focus is achieved through development of a demonstrator application which forecasts the Congestion Index (journey time/cruise time) on a given link for a future time horizon. State-of-the-art neural network software is used to produce models which are calibrated and validated using data collected from SCOOT networks in Southampton with consideration also given to SCOOT data from London. For the covering abstract, see IRRD 889271.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0860502945
• Corporate Authors:

  PTRC Education and Research Services Limited

  Glenthorne House, Hammersmith Grove
  London W6OL9,   England 
• Authors:
  • LYONS, G D
  • McDonald, M
  • HOUNSELL, N B
  • WILLIAMS, B
  • CHEESE, J
  • Radia, B
• Publication Date: 1996

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: 13 p.
• Serial:
  • TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT AND ROAD SAFETY. PROCEEDINGS OF SEMINAR H HELD AT THE 24TH EUROPEAN TRANSPORT FORUM, BRUNEL UNIVERSITY, ENGLAND, 2-6 SEPTEMBER 1996. VOLUME P407
  • Publisher: PTRC Education and Research Services Limited
  • ISSN: 0952-3103

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Area traffic signal control; Calibration; Conferences; Expert systems; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Policy; Research projects; Traffic congestion; Travel time; Trip length; Urban areas
• Geographic Terms: United Kingdom
• ITRD Terms: 669: Area traffic control; 6171: Calibration; 8525: Conference; 632: Congestion (traffic); 8626: Expert system; 132: Forecast; 697: Journey time; 6473: Mathematical model; 173: Policy; 8557: Research project; 8119: United Kingdom; 313: Urban area
• Subject Areas: Policy; Research;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00737483
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• ISBN: 0-86050-294-5
• Files: ITRD
• Created Date: Jun 27 1997 12:00AM