ON RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE ABSENCE OF COMPLETE DATA

A major problem in assessing risks in advanced systems is that: (1) all of the potential consequences are not known nor anticipated; and (2) even when risks are anticipated there is uncertainty in the data. Several mathematical risk assessment theories are summarized in this report, and their deficiencies in the absence of complete data are discussed. The mathematical basis of risk assessment is considered, and the basic problems of moving from a discrete to a continuous consequence-frequency distribution are discussed. The application of these concepts to waste disposal and storage of high level radioactive waste, risk to ground populations due to airline crashes, and nuclear power plant risks are reviewed and discussed.

• Corporate Authors:

  University of California, Los Angeles

  School of Architecture and Urban Planning
  Los Angeles, CA  United States  90024

  National Science Foundation

  Research Applied to National Needs
  Washington, DC  United States  20550
• Authors:
  • Kastenberg, W E
  • MCKONE, T E
  • Okrent, D
• Publication Date: 1976-7

Media Info

• Pagination: 50 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air transportation crashes; Hazards; Mathematical models; Nuclear power plants; Population; Probability theory; Radioactive waste facilities; Radioactive wastes; Risk analysis; Risk assessment
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Data and Information Technology; Safety and Human Factors; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00151585
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Report/Paper Numbers: UCLA-ENG-7677, NSF/RA-760325
• Contract Numbers: NSF-GI-39416, NSF-OEP75-20318
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Apr 13 1977 12:00AM