REPORT ON PROBABILITY OF COLLISIONS ON SELECTED ROUTES. VOLUME I

Lifetime collision probability on two nuclear tanker routes and one nuclear container route were calculated based on route collision frequency obtained from the Liverpool Underwriters Casualty Returns for an eleven year period and a route density projection to 1990 performed by Planning Systems Inc. In calculating the probability the methodology developed in Ref. 7 was used to get the number of vessels to be found in a circular area of encounter travelling with the nuclear vessel. A model was obtained for the probability of collision on a given route for the lifetime of a nuclear vessel. Sensitivity studies were made for variations in nuclear vessel speed, speed of other vessels, and average density of ships in a given grid square of ocean, but not for the number of collisions per unit time in such grid square.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Sponsored in part by Babcock and Wilcox Co., Lynchburg, Va.
• Corporate Authors:

  Sharp (George G) Incorporated

  100 Church Street
  New York, NY  United States  10007

  Maritime Administration

  1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
  Washington, DC  United States  20590

  Babcock and Wilcox Company

  PO Box 1260
  Lynchburg, VA  United States  24504
• Publication Date: 1976-9-30

Media Info

• Pagination: 48 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Computer programming; Crashes; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Nuclear powered ships; Probability theory; Safety; Statistical distributions; Statistics; Studies; Trade routes; Water transportation crashes
• Old TRIS Terms: Collision modeling; Collision statistics; Trade route studies
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Marine Transportation; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00151584
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Report/Paper Numbers: MA-RD-920-77021 Final Rpt.
• Contract Numbers: MA-5516t
• Files: TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: Apr 13 1977 12:00AM