STRUCTURAL TRAVEL DEMAND MODELS: AN INTERCITY APPLICATION

Conventional sequential transportation models clearly have limitations as estimators of intercity travel demand. Despite their theoretical advantage, little work has been carried out in the full application of behavioral or "structural" models. Structural-model development is focused primarily on disaggregate models, particularly for modal split. This paper discussess the development of an alternative approach, that of developing a set of direct-demand models for estimating intercity transit travel for a Sacramento-Stockton-San Francisco Bay Area corridor study. A series of judgments are desired that identify why structural models rather than sequential models were chosen and why direct-demand models rather than probabalistic-choice models were used. The methodology of calibration, including variable selection and equation development, validation, and forecasting, is outlined. Emphasis is placed on the trade-offs to be made among policy responsiveness, accuracy, and the practical problems of developing and using such forecasting tools. The material has been oriented toward the planner-engineer faced with the practical issues of selecting and using intercity travel demand forecasting procedures.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1976/569/569-009.pdf
• Record URL:
  • https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=STRUCTURAL+TRAVEL+DEMAND+MODELS%3A+AN+INTERCITY+APPLICATION&author=J.+Peers&author=M.+Bevilacqua&publication_year=1976
• Availability:
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Authors:
  • Peers, John B
  • Bevilacqua, Michael
• Conference:
  • 54th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia
  • Date: 1975-1-13 to 1975-1-17
• Publication Date: 1976

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 124-135
• Monograph Title: New approaches to travel forecasting
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 569
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Calibration; Disaggregate analysis; Forecasting; Intercity travel; Mathematical models; Modal split; Mode choice; Passengers; Structural models; Transportation; Travel demand
• Uncontrolled Terms: Transportation models
• Old TRIS Terms: Disaggregate models
• Subject Areas: Bridges and other structures; Operations and Traffic Management; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00141296
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 030902482X
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Oct 26 1976 12:00AM