A SYNTHESIZED TRIP-FORECASTING MODEL FOR SMALL- AND MEDIUM-SIZED URBAN AREAS

Because of the high monetary and time costs associated with home-interview surveys for urban transportation studies, planning analysts have sought to model travel demand by using other data sources such as 1970 census worktrip data. The purpose of the research reported in this paper is to examine trip distribution functions that may be appropriate for estimating zone trip interchange in small- to medium- sized urban areas. Several functional forms of travel impedance were investigated. For the city sizes studied, model accuracy is shown to be relatively insensitive to the form of the travel impedance function. Analytical deductions are used to develop a calibration technique for a 2-way, constrained gravity model using the simple negative exponential function. Calibration of the model can be accomplished without using extensive origin- destination survey data. The model is tested by using data from actual studies, and an outline is suggested for calibrating the distribution model by using the 1970 census data.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1976/569/569-006.pdf
• Record URL:
  • https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=A+SYNTHESIZED+TRIP-FORECASTING+MODEL+FOR+SMALL-+AND+MEDIUM-SIZED+URBAN+AREAS&author=M.+Zaryouni&author=E.+Kannel&publication_year=1976
• Availability:
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Authors:
  • Zaryouni, M R
  • Kannel, E J
• Conference:
  • 54th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia
  • Date: 1975-1-13 to 1975-1-17
• Publication Date: 1976

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 87-95
• Monograph Title: New approaches to travel forecasting
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 569
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Calibration; Census; Forecasting; Gravity models; Medium sized cities; Small cities; Travel demand; Urban areas; Work trips
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Public Transportation; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00141293
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 030902482X
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Oct 26 1981 12:00AM