TIME-STABILITY ANALYSIS OF TRIP-GENERATION AND PREDISTRIBUTION MODAL-CHOICE MODELS

Data from home-interview surveys in Detroit for 1953 and 1965 were used to test the time stability of disaggregate trip-generation and predistribution modal-choice models. Initial cross-classification analysis showed 4 to 18 percent increases in household trip-generation rates for households with cars available. A statistical test of the overall time stability of multiple linear regression trip-generation equations indicated that the equations were not stable unless non-trip-making households were removed. The individual regression coefficients also were tested for time stability, and, despite the lack of overall statistical time stability, disaggregate work- and home-based trip-generation equations for 1953 produced reasonable estimates of 1965 zone-level trips. Disaggregate regression equations for the automobile-driver and bus modes also were found to exhibit only limited time stability. Interaction between cars available and number of persons employed was particularly important in explaining bus trips. Tests of the time-stability assumption at the zone level were limited by the lack of zone-level interaction variables.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1976/569/569-005.pdf
• Record URL:
  • https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=TIME-STABILITY+ANALYSIS+OF+TRIP-GENERATION+AND+PREDISTRIBUTION+MODAL-CHOICE+MODELS&author=R.+Smith&author=D.+Cleveland&publication_year=1976
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Authors:
  • Smith Jr, Robert L
  • Cleveland, Donald E
• Conference:
  • 54th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia
  • Date: 1975-1-13 to 1975-1-17
• Publication Date: 1976

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 76-86
• Monograph Title: New approaches to travel forecasting
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 569
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Bus transportation; Disaggregate analysis; Flow; Households; Interviewing; Mode choice; Stability analysis; Time; Trip generation
• Old TRIS Terms: Disaggregate models; Linear flow; Modal selection
• Subject Areas: Highways; Motor Carriers; Operations and Traffic Management; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00141292
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 030902482X
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Oct 26 1976 12:00AM