DEVELOPMENT OF BAYESIAN REGRESSION MODEL TO PREDICT HOT-MIX ASPHALT CONCRETE OVERLAY ROUGHNESS

Predictive equations are central to the many tools highway professionals use to design, maintain, and manage our highway infrastructure. However, adequate data bases to support the development and updating of these models are often lacking. These data bases are often inadequate in sample size, noisy, or incomplete. Conventional statistical modeling tools, such as classical regression analysis, meet with limited success in these applications. A promising solution lies in the use of Bayesian regression, which explicitly allows expert judgment, collected from in-house or external experts, to be used to supplement poor-quality data. An overview is presented of the development of a Bayesian predictive model to forecast the progression of roughness in hot-mix asphalt concrete overlays using data and expert judgment provided by Alberta Transportation and Utilities.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.3141/1539-17
• Summary URL:
  http://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=DEVELOPMENT+OF+BAYESIAN+REGRESSION+MODEL+TO+PREDICT+HOT-MIX+ASPHALT+CONCRETE+OVERLAY+ROUGHNESS&author=L.+Kajner&author=M.+Kurlanda&author=G.+Sparks&publication_year=1996
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309059127
• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1539, Flexible Pavement Design and Rehabilitation Issues.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Kajner, L
  • Kurlanda, M
  • Sparks, G A
• Publication Date: 1996

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 125-131
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 1539
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Databases; Flexible pavements; Forecasting; Hot mix asphalt; Judgment (Human characteristics); Overlays (Pavements); Pavement design; Roughness
• Old TRIS Terms: Bayesian regression
• Subject Areas: Design; Highways; Pavements; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways; I23: Properties of Road Surfaces;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00730290
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309059127
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Dec 19 1997 12:00AM