SURVEY OF STATISTICAL MODELS FOR OXIDANT AIR QUALITY PREDICTION

The statistical-empirical approach to oxidant modeling is reviewed with particular reference to oxidant prediction. Such modeling is currently proceeding in 2 directions. The first, short term oxidant forecasting over the range of hours to days, has the goal of episode control by short-term emission control as well as the issuance of health and perhaps agricultural warnings. The major tools as Box-Jenkins time series analysis, multiple regression, and aspects of pattern recognition. The second direction is long term prediction over the scale of years of the expected changes in oxidant levels due to changes in total reactive hydrocarbons (RHC) and nitrogen oxides (NOX) emissions, either aggregated for an air basin or more rarely spatially resolved. The goal of such prediction is the assessment of probable effects on oxidant air quality of various emission control strategies, regional planning, transportation planning, and environmental impact reports. The major categories of models are rollback, prediction from HC, prediction from NOX, and spatial resolution. The advantages of using statistical-empirical models include (a) their close relation to the actual air measurement data from which they are derived, allowing the possibility of correct prediction even in the absence of understanding of the underlying phenomena, and (b) their simplicity and low cost of development and use. Disadvantages and dangers in the use of this modeling techniques and other techniques (smog chamber modeling, mechanistic modeling) are noted.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/sr/sr167/sr167-005.pdf
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/0360859X
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Presented at the Conference on the State of the Art of Assessing Transportation-Related Air Quality Impacts, Washington, D.C., October 22-24, 1975.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board (TRB)

  Washington, DC   
• Authors:
  • Myrabo, Leik N
  • Wilson, Kent R
  • Trijonis, John C
• Conference:
  • Conference on the State of the Art of Assessing Transportation-Related Air Quality Impacts
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
  • Date: 1975-10-22 to 1975-10-24
• Publication Date: 1976

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: pp 46-62
• Monograph Title: Assessing transportation-related air quality impacts
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Board Special Report
  • Issue Number: 167
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0360-859X

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air pollution; Air quality management; Data collection; Environmental impact statements; Exhaust gases; Forecasting; Hydrocarbons; Mathematical models; Multiple regression analysis; Nitric oxide; Nitrogen oxides; Oxidizing agents; Pattern recognition systems; Regional planning; Statistical analysis; Surveys; Transportation planning
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Old TRIS Terms: Exhaust emission control; Low costs; Multiple regression; Oxidant
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Data and Information Technology; Design; Highways; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00139651
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Sep 21 1976 12:00AM