STOCHASTIC CONSIDERATIONS IN THUNDERSTORM MODELING

A mesocale stochastic model of thunderstorm activity is developed to simulate the hourly development of both air mass and squall-line storms. This modeling technique is based on Poisson occurring thunderstorms, Markov cloud formation and movement, and rainfall-producing convective cells, and is intended to provide a more complete theoretical understanding of the thunderstorm process. The rain cells from according to a prescribed probabilitic model within clouds on an hourly basis, with a relatively high likelihood of generation of a new cell in the vicinity of a previous cell. The cells are described by a center magnitude with a Gumbel distribution and an exponential or power law decay formula. The stochastic model is programmed for simulation in a fairly general program that allows many different variables in the thunderstorm process to be either prescribed, or simulated from appropriate probability distributions. /Author/

• Corporate Authors:

  American Society of Civil Engineers

  345 East 47th Street
  New York, NY  United States  10017-2398
• Authors:
  • Corotis, R B
• Publication Date: 1976-7

Media Info

• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 865-879
• Serial:
  • Journal of the Hydraulics Division
  • Volume: 102
  • Issue Number: HY7
  • Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Clouds; Mass; Mathematical models; Rainfall; Simulation; Stochastic processes; Storms; Thunderstorms
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Old TRIS Terms: Cells
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Hydraulics and Hydrology;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00139581
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: ASCE #12231
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 6 1976 12:00AM