STATE OF THE ART IN PREDICTING THE PROBABILISTIC RESPONSE OF PAVEMENT STRUCTURES

Current design procedures that assume a homogeneous material do not account for the limited pavement distress that is experienced in the field; rather they are based on a catastrophic occurrence of distress. Variability of stress due to load variables and variability of pavement strength due to material characteristics are related in several recent developments, generally by making gross transformations between a statistical confidence level and satisfactory performance. Reliability techniques are describe, and special attention is given to the Markov process. Reliability can be viewed as a probability that none of the following events occurs: (a) the number of overlays exceeds the allowed number/ (b) the total cost of maintenance and overlays converted to net present value exceeds the allowed cost; and (c) a user delay penalty cost exceeds an allowed value. /Author/

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1976/575/575-002.pdf
• Record URL:
  • https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=STATE+OF+THE+ART+IN+PREDICTING+THE+PROBABILISTIC+RESPONSE+OF+PAVEMENT+STRUCTURES&author=B.+McCullough&publication_year=1976
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Mechanics of Earth Masses and Layered Systems .Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Authors:
  • McCullough, B Frank
• Conference:
  • 54th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia
  • Date: 1975-1-13 to 1975-1-17
• Publication Date: 1976

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: pp 17-26
• Monograph Title: Role of probability and statistics in the structural analysis of pavements
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 575
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Building materials; Defects; Forecasting; Loads; Maintenance management; Markov processes; Pavement distress; Pavement layers; Pavement overlays; Pavements; Paving; Probability theory; Reliability; State of the art studies; Stresses; User charges
• Uncontrolled Terms: Maintenance costs; Pavement structure
• Old TRIS Terms: Response
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Finance; Highways; Pavements;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00139549
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309024897
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Sep 16 1976 12:00AM