FUNDAMENTALS OF PROBABILITY THEORY

The components of a pavement system, its loadings and responses, its constitutive materials, and conditions of weather vary in time and location in a random manner. Mathematical models of such systems are known as stochastic processes. This paper presents some fundamentals of probability theory that form the building blocks of such processes. Specific topics treated are deterministic and stochastic systems, randomness and probability, tree diagrams, permutations and computations, conditional probabilities, independence, and Bayes' theorem. Examples are presented to demonstrate the use of the concepts relative to factors entering the analysis, design, construction, and proofing of pavement systems. The concept of chance as it applies to dice or cards is discussed. In this paper a collection of tools is described, and their use is demonstrated. /Author/

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1976/575/575-001.pdf
• Record URL:
  • https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=FUNDAMENTALS+OF+PROBABILITY+THEORY&author=M.+Harr&publication_year=1976
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309024897
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Mechanics of Earth Masses and Layered Systems. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Authors:
  • Harr, M E
• Discussers:
  • Davis, Richard L
• Conference:
  • 54th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia
  • Date: 1975-1-13 to 1975-1-17
• Publication Date: 1976

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: p. 1-16
• Monograph Title: Role of probability and statistics in the structural analysis of pavements
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 575
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Building materials; Calculation; Loads; Mathematical models; Mathematical trees; Pavement design; Paving; Probability theory; Stochastic processes; Weather
• Uncontrolled Terms: Computation; Loading
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Pavements;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00139548
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309024897
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Sep 16 1976 12:00AM