A COMPARISON OF SOME LAND-USE ALLOCATION/INTERACTION MODELS. THE GARIN-LOWRY MODEL, THE SIMULTANEOUS REGRESSION MODEL, AND THE ORDINARY REGRESSION MODEL

This is an attempt to compare gravity models and regression models by applying them to a 23 zone region around Reading. Using census data for 1961 and 1966 a full comparison of the calibration stage is presented and a study is then made of how successfully each model predicts the 1971 population. The Garin-Lowry type gravity model generates population, service employment and the trip patterns for a given input distribution of basic employment and is generally calibrated at one point in time. An alternative procedure is to use a regression model either simultaneous regression or ordinary regression, to generate zone totals for population and service employment, given the basic employment pattern and as many other relevant variables as possible. Here the model is generally run on incremental changes in the variables over a time period, and if the trip distribution pattern is required, then the results have to be fed into a trip distribution model. As well as making a very full comparison of the different models at the calibration stage and in prediction, a lot of problems, common to all model building projects are also considered. Such problems as the assumptions underlying the different models, the use of total allocation variables or incremental change variables in the models, the problems in creating a zoning system, the problem of data collection, the extra data required for the regression model, the suitability of the various tests used at calibration, the stability of the models in prediction, the computer time required for each model, the availability of computer programs, etc. /Author/TRRL/

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00207683
• Corporate Authors:

  Reading University, England

  Whiteknights
  Reading RG6 2AB, Berkshire,   England 
• Authors:
  • Foot, DHS
• Publication Date: 1974-9

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 36 p.
• Serial:
  • INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SOLIDS AND STRUCTURES
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0020-7683

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Calculation; Calibration; Census; Computers; Cost allocation; Costs; Data collection; Employment; Forecasting; Gravity models; Land use; Land use models; Mathematical models; Population; Population forecasting; Regression analysis; Travel; Trip distribution; Work trips
• Uncontrolled Terms: Allocation models; Comparative analysis; Computation; Zone
• Geographic Terms: United Kingdom
• ITRD Terms: 336: Census (popul); 132: Forecast; 690: Gravity model; 698: Journey; 621: Journey to work; 356: Land use; 6473: Mathematical model; 335: Population; 6588: Regression analysis; 8119: United Kingdom
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Economics; Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Society; I10: Economics and Administration; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00139100
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
• Report/Paper Numbers: Report No. 31 Monograph
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Nov 9 1977 12:00AM