THE COMPREHENSIVE FORECASTING MODEL FOR THE NEW HONG KONG AIRPORT AT CHEK LAP KOK

This paper presents a comprehensive traffic forecasting study of passenger, cargo, aircraft, and surface access movements at Kai Tak Airport, Hong Kong, in connection with the larger new Chek Lap Kok Airport that will replace it. The study was commissioned by the Provisional Airport Authority (PAA), established to supervise the construction of the new airport, then manage its operation. The objective was to provide the PAA with its own forecasting capability, in the form of a model, that could be updated and refined in the future, and thus support PAA decision making and planning. The model was developed to produce forecasts up to the year 2040, unconstrained by capacity limits, and it was applied to forecast traffic activity in the years 1997, 2002, and 2010. The model was structured in: (1) a primary module, to forecast annual demand for passenger, cargo, and aircraft movements, to support financial forecasting; and (2) a secondary module, to guide the planning of airport capacity, and schedule infrastructure development for terminal passengers, cargo, aircraft movements, and surface access demand. The model produces both standard peak hour measures and a full profile of a typical busy day. The model system has been installed on a personal computer in the PAA's offices, whose staff have been trained in its use. For the covering abstract see IRRD 879900.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Pagination: p. 99-110

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00724095
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
  • ISBN: 0-86050-286-4
  • Files: ITRD
  • Created Date: Aug 19 1996 12:00AM