FORECASTING DIAL-A-BUS RIDERSHIP IN SMALL URBAN AREAS

A method is developed for estimating potential demand for innovative transit services such as dial-a-bus and park-and-ride in small urban areas and suburban communities currently lacking such services. The method assumes that the rate of usage of a particular type of service is similar for particular population groupings, regardless of their geographical location. The rate of usage is presumed to depend on factors such as age, sex, and service attributes rather than characteristics of the community under consideration. The procedure is applied in the analysis of demand for dial-a-bus service in Oneonta, New York, by using the existing system in Batavia, New York, as the base for determining actual rates of response to such a service. Results indicate that the method gives reasonable estimates of demand and demand sensitivity to policy variables such as fare and gasoline price.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1976/563/563-006.pdf
• Summary URL:
  • https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=FORECASTING+DIAL-A-BUS+RIDERSHIP+IN+SMALL+URBAN+AREAS&author=D.+Hartgen&author=C.+Keck&publication_year=1976
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309024730
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Public Transportation Planning and Development. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
• Authors:
  • Hartgen, David T
  • Keck, Carol A
• Conference:
  • 54th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia
  • Date: 1975-1-13 to 1975-1-17
• Publication Date: 1976

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 53-62
• Monograph Title: Public Transportation Planning
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 563
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Fares; Gasoline; Paratransit services; Park and ride; Ridership; Small cities; Suburbs; Traffic forecasting; Travel demand
• Old TRIS Terms: Dial-a-bus; User characteristics
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00138150
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309024730
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Sep 4 1981 12:00AM