SWOV INSTITUTE FOR ROAD SAFETY RESEARCH MODELS BASED ON OFFICIAL AND UNOFFICIAL DATA. DESCRIPTION OF THE USED METHOD OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS FOR A DISCUSSION ABOUT A POSSIBLE TREND BREACH IN THE ROAD SAFETY DEVELOPMENT

SWOV-MODELLEN VOOR GEAGGREGEERDE EN GEDISAGGREGEERDE GEGEVENS. BESCHRIJVING VAN DE GEBRUIKTE METHODE VAN TIJDREEKSANALYSE VOOR EEN DISCUSSIE OVER EEN MOGELIJKE TRENDBREUK IN DE ONTWIKKELING VAN DE VERKEERSVEILIGHEID

The SWOV Institute for Road Safety Research models regard the development in safety as the resultant of the development in mobility and risk (the road hazard per unit of traffic). These two components are modelled, rather than road hazard itself. Various scenarios for the development of mobility and for risk are calculated. A description and prognosis of the total number of fatalities and hospital admissions is given. Hospital admissions are analysed using data from accident statistics and from hospital registration files. Developments are described, according to road type and road maintenance authority. The predicted developments are indicated in a large number of graphs, up to the year 2010. The graphs are based on two mobility scenarios set against the situation in 1986. It is anticipated that in the year 2010, the overall motorised transport will increase by 35% and 45%, respectively. The following two variables were selected for the risk factor: (1) an optimistic variable: an exponential drop in risk to ultimately zero accidents; and (2) a pessimistic variable: a logistic drop in risk to a level determined by the model.

• Corporate Authors:

  Institute for Road Safety Research, SWOV

  Bezuidenhoutseweg 62
  The Hague,   Netherlands  2594 AW
• Authors:
  • Oppe, S
  • BIJLEVELD, F D
• Publication Date: 1995

Language

• Dutch

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: 52 p.
• Serial:
  • Issue Number: R-95-54

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Fatalities; Forecasting; Freeways; Hazards; Highways; Injuries; Mathematical models; Mobility; Safety; Statistics; Trend (Statistics)
• Geographic Terms: Netherlands
• ITRD Terms: 1602: Fatality; 132: Forecast; 2755: Highway; 2163: Injury; 6473: Mathematical model; 9105: Mobility (pers); 2752: Motorway; 8078: Netherlands; 9150: Risk; 1665: Safety; 6555: Statistics; 6515: Trend (stat)
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00724054
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Institute for Road Safety Research, SWOV
• Files: ITRD
• Created Date: Aug 19 1996 12:00AM