MODELLING OF SOME MAJOR FACTORS INFLUENCING ROAD TRAUMA TRENDS IN VICTORIA 1989-93
A number of recent studies in Victoria have evaluated the effects of countermeasures and other factors which appear to be responsible for the substantial reduction in mad trauma since 1989. A need was identified to combine the results of these studies into a single model which could explain the overall reduction. The contributions of random breath testing, speed camera operations, road safety television publicity, unemployment rates and alcohol sales were estimated. Whilst the contributions of the last three countermeasures listed above were not estimated explicitly, their contributions to reducing crashes were accounted for. The models estimating reductions in serious casualty were then validated using 1993 monthly crash data. Subsequently, the contributions of random breath testing, speed camera tickets issued, levels of road safety television publicity, unemployment rates and alcohol sales to reducing the number of serious casualty crashes were estimated for the period 1990-93. A method of separately estimating the effect of accident blackspot treatments and disaggregating this from the trend was described and applied. As an example of an application to a crash sub-group, the methodology was also applied to the figures for young drivers.
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/073260074X
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Corporate Authors:
Monash University
Accident Research Centre
Building 70
Clayton, Victoria Australia 3800 -
Authors:
- NEWSTEAD, S V
- CAMERON, M H
- Gantzer, S
- Vulcan, A P
- Publication Date: 1995-7
Language
- English
Media Info
- Features: References;
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Serial:
- Issue Number: 74
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Alcohol breath tests; Crash severity; Crashes; Fatalities; High risk locations; Injuries; Injury severity; Intoxication; Jobs; Law enforcement; Mathematical models; Photography; Prevention; Publicity; Safety; Speed; Statistics
- Uncontrolled Terms: Causes
- Geographic Terms: Australia
- ITRD Terms: 1643: Accident; 1663: Accident black spot; 1661: Accident prevention; 1542: Alcohol test; 8006: Australia; 9003: Cause; 2231: Drunkenness; 1534: Enforcement (law); 1602: Fatality; 2163: Injury; 6473: Mathematical model; 2271: Occupation; 6751: Photography; 8573: Publicity; 1623: Severity (accid, injury); 5408: Speed; 6555: Statistics
- Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 00717906
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: ARRB
- ISBN: 0-7326-0074-X
- Files: ITRD, ATRI
- Created Date: Mar 20 1996 12:00AM