A MODEL FOR EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MOTOR VEHICLE INSPECTION PROGRAMS

A statistical model for the evaluation of the effectiveness of motor vehicle inspection programs in reducing highway crashes is presented. The model is based on the assumption that the waiting time between highway crashes follows an exponential distribution. Since highway crashes are relatively rare events, it is assumed that the length of the study period is such that censoring occurs. Under these assumptions, maximum likelihood estimates of the mean waiting time theta until a crash for the non-inspected (inspected) vehicles is obtained and the corresponding test statistic is derived. As mechanically-caused accidents are but a small part of the overall accident picture and since inspection should only affect this portion, sample size requirements are investigated for various combinations of theta, delta (increase in average time until a crash due to the effect of inspection), l (length of study period), and alpha = beta (probability of type I error equalling probability of type II error). For reasonable delta, the sample required is indeed sizeable. (A) /TRRL/

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00014575
• Corporate Authors:

  Pergamon Press, Incorporated

  Maxwell House, Fairview Park
  Elmsford, NY  United States  10523
• Authors:
  • Symons, M J
  • Reinfart, D W
• Publication Date: 1975-12

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 281-288
• Serial:
  • Accident Analysis & Prevention
  • Volume: 7 N
  • Issue Number: 4
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0001-4575
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00014575

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crashes; Economic efficiency; Exponential distributions; Inspection; Mathematical models; Measures of effectiveness; Motor vehicles; Prevention; Probability; Safety; Statistical analysis; Statistical distributions; Statistical sampling; Time
• Uncontrolled Terms: Effectiveness; Efficiency
• ITRD Terms: 1643: Accident; 1661: Accident prevention; 5911: Efficiency; 6473: Mathematical model; 6534: Probability; 6553: Sample (stat); 5414: Time; 1575: Vehicle inspection
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Economics; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies; I80: Accident Studies; I95: Vehicle Inspection;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00134203
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Sep 16 1976 12:00AM