STATISTICIANS' MOTORWAY MADNESS

The author criticises the accuracy of Department of the Environment (DOE) traffic forecasts and suggests that they are a weak foundation on which to build a motorway. He argues that although government agrees that road schemes may be challenged at a public enquiry, statistics used in drawing up road proposals cannot be questioned. He suggests that the DOE may load traffic onto a road they are trying to justify at the expense of others; if this is the case, then estimates of the saturation level of car ownership become important. The model used to predict this level by JC Tanner in the report LR650 published by the Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL) has been attacked by J Adams of University College London. Adams and Tanner have produced arguements to justify their assumptions, but the author is worried that Tanner's figure could be used solely because it has been consistently adopted for many years'. Predicted traffic increases could be much smaller if this figure, used by DOE were inaccurate; some motorways planned would not be needed. /TRRL/

• Availability:
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• Corporate Authors:

  IPC Magazines

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• Authors:
  • Hanlon, J
• Publication Date: 1975-12-11

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures;
• Pagination: p. 648-649
• Serial:
  • NEW SCIENTIST
  • Volume: 68
  • Issue Number: 979
  • Publisher: REED BUSINESS INFORMATION LTD
  • ISSN: 0262-4079

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Errors; Forecasting; Freeways; Highway planning; Mathematical models; Motor vehicles; Ownership; Planning; Statistics; Traffic flow; Traffic forecasting; Transportation planning; Urban transportation
• ITRD Terms: 6440: Error; 132: Forecast; 6473: Mathematical model; 2752: Motorway; 143: Planning; 6555: Statistics; 671: Traffic flow; 315: Vehicle ownership
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Data and Information Technology; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I71: Traffic Theory;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00133672
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Aug 23 1976 12:00AM