TRAVEL-TIME UNCERTAINTY, DEPARTURE TIME CHOICE, AND THE COST OF MORNING COMMUTES
Existing models of the commuting time-of-day choice were used to analyze the effect of uncertain travel times. Travel time included a time-varying congestion component and a random element specified by a probability distribution. The results from the uniform and exponential probability distributions were compared and the optimal "head-start" time that the commuter chooses to account for travel time variability, that is, a safety margin that determines the probability of arriving late for work, was derived. The model includes a one-time lateness penalty for arriving late as well as the per-minute penalties for early and late arrival that are included by other investigators. It also generalizes earlier work by accounting for the time variation in the predictable component of congestion, which interacts with uncertainty in interesting ways. A brief numerical analysis of the model reveals that uncertainty can account for a large proportion of the costs of the morning commute.
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309061709
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Supplemental Notes:
- This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1493, Travel Demand Forecasting, Travel Behavior Analysis, Time-Sensitive Transportation, and Traffic Assignment Methods. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
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Authors:
- Noland, Robert B
- Small, Kenneth A
- Publication Date: 1995
Language
- English
Media Info
- Features: References; Tables;
- Pagination: p. 150-158
- Monograph Title: Travel demand forecasting, travel behavior analysis, time-sensitive transportation, and traffic assignment methods
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Serial:
- Transportation Research Record
- Issue Number: 1493
- Publisher: Transportation Research Board
- ISSN: 0361-1981
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Commuting; Costs; Departure time; Distributions (Statistics); Numerical analysis; Travel time; Uncertainty
- Uncontrolled Terms: Choices; Cost models
- Subject Areas: Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 00714867
- Record Type: Publication
- ISBN: 0309061709
- Files: TRIS, TRB
- Created Date: Dec 8 1995 12:00AM