DEMAND ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION

This paper, which appears in a compendium of conference papers, describes a study that examines an approach to modeling freight mode choice decisions, seeking to understand the behavior of shippers in choosing between air and truck for goods movement. Data on actual choices were gathered from published data and merged with data from other research studies into a database. A probabilistic model of mode choice was developed to measure the importance of transport attributes and commodity characteristics to shippers. Empirical models were estimated for several specifications, and the freight rate and travel time elasticities determined with respect to air, indicating shipper sensitivity to air freight rates in relation to the air mode choice. The predictive power of the calibrated model was tested on a held-out sample. The model was found to be reasonably accurate. Further accuracy could be accomplished if data on other variables affecting mode choice became available.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Additional support was provided by the Puget Sound Regional Council and King County, Washington.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001

  Washington State Department of Transportation

  Transportation Building, 310 Maple Park Avenue SE, P.O. Box 47300
  Olympia, WA  United States  98504-7300
• Authors:
  • Hashemian, H
• Conference:
  • Fifth National Conference on Transportation Planning Methods Applications-Volume I: A Compendium of Papers Based on a Conference Held in Seattle, Washington in April 1995
  • Location: Seattle, Washington
  • Date: 1995-4-17 to 1995-4-21
• Publication Date: 1995-6

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Tables;
• Pagination: 12p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air transportation; Demand; Economic forecasting; Freight traffic; Freight transportation; Mathematical models; Mode choice; Rates; Shipping; Travel time; Trucks
• Uncontrolled Terms: Freight rates; Models
• Old TRIS Terms: Shipping forecasts
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Economics; Freight Transportation; Highways; Marine Transportation; Motor Carriers; Planning and Forecasting; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00713765
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, TRB, STATEDOT
• Created Date: Nov 20 1995 12:00AM