RELIABILITY ANALYSIS CONSIDERING ITEMS RELATED TO HUMAN ERROR ON FUNCTIONAL DESIGN APPLICATIONS OF MARINE SYSTEMS (PART 1), THE ESTIMATION OF ACCIDENT INCIDENCE PROBABILITY

This paper presents an analytical method for the estimation of the incidence probability of accidents during the functional design applications of marine systems. This process of probability estimation is divided into three stages. First the qualitative analysis of the reliability of the functional system under design is carried out using the fault tree. Next, the probability of human error and the frequency of device failure in the functional system are decided by using a degree of unsafeness; which is defined as similar to the sense scale based on the experience and ingenuity of engineers. Finally, the improved choice of items is used in the calculation using the Boolian function to reduce the risk of accident probability in the functional system. The effects of countermeasures adopted are predicted quantitavely in the calculation based on the fault tree analysis and the fuzzy theory. As a practical example, the conditions for reducing the incidence of fire spread during a ship fire are investigated using the proposed method.

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • J Soc Naval Arch Japan, v 176, Dec 1994, p 603 [11 p, 7 ref, 2 tab, 15 fig]
  • Authors:
    • Shinoda, T
    • Fukuchi, N
  • Publication Date: 1994

Language

  • Japanese

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00710671
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: British Maritime Technology
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Aug 14 1995 12:00AM