THE SELF-FULFILLMENT OF LONG-RANGE TRANSPORTATION FORECASTS

This examination of the self-fulfilling concept in relation to its implications for the formulation and evaluation of public policy, defines the characteristics exist in the long-range planning process of any large public agency, and makes conjectures about possible implications of the existence of these self-affecting tendencies in the process by which public policy is formulated, evaluated and implemented. The conditions that must be satisfied before a forecast produced by a public agency can be expected to have a strong self-fulfillment tendency are defined and illustrated. These conditions have rarely been satisfied by urban land-use and transportation planning. However, if the mass media take a more active role in public agency forcasts, a stronger self-fulfillment tendency should be expected to develop. Long-range planners should try to identify the interest groups that are logically part of the causal chain, determine the extent to which these groups know of a believe in the forecasts, and monitor the actions of these groups to assess the self-fulfillment tendencies of their work. Planners should devise methods that could counter or enhance the self-fulfillment tendencies of their work.

• Record URL:
  • https://hdl.handle.net/2027/mdp.39015021808780?urlappend=%3Bseq=577
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00410713
• Corporate Authors:

  Eno Transportation Foundation

  1250 I Street, NW, Suite 750
  Washington, DC  United States  20005
• Authors:
  • Schneider, J B
• Publication Date: 1975-10

Media Info

• Features: Figures;
• Pagination: p. 555-569
• Serial:
  • Traffic Quarterly
  • Volume: 29
  • Issue Number: 4
  • Publisher: Eno Transportation Foundation
  • ISSN: 0041-0713

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Communities; Forecasting; Land use; Mass media; Monitoring; Public policy; Public relations; Transportation; Transportation planning; Urban areas
• Uncontrolled Terms: Community support
• Old TRIS Terms: Interest
• Subject Areas: Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00131714
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: May 14 1976 12:00AM