REVENUE PASSENGER-MILE FORECAST FOR 1976 SCHEDULED DOMESTIC OPERATIONS: DOMESTIC TRUNKS

A methodology has been developed for projecting scheduled domestic truck revenue passenger-miles in which the forecast equation is based on statistical analysis of historical data for the period 1947 through 1975. The equation is used to project 1976 traffic. A significant relationship has been established between revenue passenger-miles and fares, income, and the Dow Jones industrial average. The model indicates that with current fare levels and economic assumptions the 1976 growth in scheduled domestic RPM's should approximate 12.0 percent, representing a traffic level of 133.7 billion passenger-miles. Additional fare increases or changes in the discount structure will result in a smaller traffic growth. The 12.0 percent traffic growth rate assumes a scheduled yield increase of 3 percent for 1976. If a 5 percent increase is assumed, traffic growth based on the equation would be projected at 9.4 percent with projected RPM's at 130.6 billion. Charts illustrate the historical traffic trend and the two alternative projections for 1976.

• Corporate Authors:

  Civil Aeronautics Board

  Bureau of Accounts and Statistics
  Washington, DC  United States  20428
• Publication Date: 1976-6

Media Info

• Features: Tables;
• Pagination: 8 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Domestic; Economic forecasting; Fares; Revenues; Statistical analysis; Traffic forecasting; Travel demand; Truck lines
• Old TRIS Terms: Domestic trunklines
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Data and Information Technology; Economics; Finance; Freight Transportation; Motor Carriers; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00141381
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Dec 1 1976 12:00AM