TRADE FORECASTING

This paper presents basic principles for the forecasting of ocean trade movements. These methods include trend extrapolation, in-depth economic analysis, input-output analysis, and methods based primarily on the judgment of experts. The strengths and weaknesses of each in terms of accuracy, cost, time, and data required are discussed and data sources for the preparation of trade forecasts are given. Two examples are presented: twenty-five year forecasts of U.S. wheat exports, and imports of bauxite and alumina. These forecasts were used for fleet planning.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Presented at Spring Meeting of SNAME, Williamsburg, Va.
• Corporate Authors:

  Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers

  601 Pavonia Avenue
  Jersey City, NJ  United States  07306-2907
• Authors:
  • Wing, J F
  • Hillman, J F
• Publication Date: 1972-5

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: 15 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Economic analysis; Economic forecasting; Exports; Forecasting; Imports; International trade; Trade
• Old TRIS Terms: Trade forecasts
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Economics; Freight Transportation; Marine Transportation; Railroads;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00032698
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Society of Naval Architects and Marine Engineers
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Apr 21 1974 12:00AM