PREDICTION WITH DISAGGREGATE MODELS: THE AGGREGATION ISSUE

This paper describes the problem of aggregation in forecasts of travel behavior under conditions in which aggregate behavior is the accumulation of travel choice decisions by individuals or households. Failure to deal with this problem, which is explicit in the use of disaggregate models and implicit in the use of aggregate models, leads to predictions that have biases related to the heterogeneity of the group for which the prediction is made. Alternative approaches to the development of unbiased aggregated forecasts based on disaggregate choice models are described. The importance of forecasting the distribution of characteristics that influence individual or household choice is cited. The advantages of an explicit aggregation procedure are identified with respect to sensitivity to changes in the distribution of choice-influencing characteristics and to improvement in the sensitivity to changes in the average values of these characteristics. Directions for future research to overcome the aggregation problem are identified.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1974/527/527-007.pdf
• Summary URL:
  • http://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=PREDICTION+WITH+DISAGGREGATE+MODELS%3a+THE+AGGREGATION+ISSUE&author=F.+Koppelman&publication_year=1974
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/03611981
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Traveler Behavior and Values. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

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• Authors:
  • Koppelman, Frank S
• Conference:
  • 53rd Annual Meeting of the Highway Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
  • Date: 1974-1-21 to 1974-1-25
• Publication Date: 1974

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: References;
• Pagination: pp 73-80
• Monograph Title: TRAVEL BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 527
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Behavior; Cluster analysis; Disaggregate analysis; Forecasting; Mode choice; Statistical bias
• Old TRIS Terms: Behavioral objectives; Disaggregate models; Modal selection
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00097408
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309023742
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Aug 13 1975 12:00AM