A BERNOULLI MODEL OF DESTINATION CHOICE

Many attempts have been made to identify the variables that condition the destination choices of individuals and groups. Diverse models of spatial choice now incorporate many descriptors of the socioeconomic characteristics of decision-makers, of their cognitive and evaluative processes, and of the objective features of destination alternatives. No single model is generally acceptable. This seems to reflect both the complexity of the destination choice decision and the difficulty of developing a single model to predict the choices of a heterogeneous population group. This paper explores an alternative approach. We assume that the individual's destination choices over time, for a given purpose, may appear to be a random process because of the conflicting or interacting effects of many variables. A simple Bernoulli model is developed to describe this process for a heterogeneous population group. A preliminary test of the model is carried out by using data on successive grocery store choices of a sample of 90 households in Uppsala, Sweden. The model fails to fit sections of the data describing the use of particular stores, the use of different classes of stores, and the behavior of different population groups. The population groups were differentiated by their degree of store familiarity, by their distance from both the stores they used and from all stores, and by their life-cycle stage. The consistent rejection of the model lends some support to new efforts to isolate variables conditioning destination choice, for example, through the application of learning models and perhaps even the multinomial logic models currently used to study mode choice.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1974/527/527-003.pdf
• Summary URL:
  • http://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=A+BERNOULLI+MODEL+OF+DESTINATION+CHOICE&author=P.+Burnett&publication_year=1974
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/03611981
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Traveler Behavior and Values. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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  Transportation Research Board

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• Authors:
  • Burnett, Pat
• Conference:
  • 53rd Annual Meeting of the Highway Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
  • Date: 1974-1-21 to 1974-1-25
• Publication Date: 1974

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 33-44
• Monograph Title: TRAVEL BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 527
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Binomial distributions; Choice models; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Origin and destination; Variables
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00097404
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309023742
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Aug 13 1975 12:00AM