TRAVEL DEMAND ESTIMATION: A NEW PRESCRIPTION

During the past decade, a new procedure for estimating travel demand has been put forward by a number of researchers, and has been subjected to an increasing amount of research, aimed at the development of operational models for travel demand estimation. The procedure has progressed far, particularly in the U.S. research community, and it appears timely to re-state the rationale for the approach and to state the basic precepts and operational procedures. This paper provides a brief discussion of conventional travel demand estimation procedures, highlighting the inadequacies of the procedure, particularly with respect to current policy decisions. Incremental strategies, which seek to improve the existing estimation procedure, are described and placed in the context of their success in responding to policy questions. The individual behaviour approach to travel demand estimation is then described, and a brief historic overview of research into this approach is given. This research has developed in both the U.K. and U.S. and has proceeded on almost parallel courses. The basic theoretical constructs of the approach are described in terms of the parent disciplines of economics and psychology. Implicit and explicit assumptions are discussed with respect to appropriateness and responsiveness to policy questions. The basic advantages of the approach - small sample sizes, transferability, responsiveness to new technologies, etc.-are then described. Finally, some prototypical models are described and discussed in the light of the claims made for the approach. From this, conclusions are drawn on current research needs in this approach and on the prognosis for successful operationalisation. /Author/TRRL/

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00410683
• Corporate Authors:

  Printerhall Limited

  29 Newmart Street
  London W1P 3PE,   England 
• Authors:
  • Stopher, P R
  • Meyburg, A H
• Publication Date: 1974-11

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References;
• Pagination: p. 879-884
• Serial:
  • Traffic Engineering & Control
  • Volume: 15
  • Issue Number: 19
  • Publisher: Hemming Group, Limited
  • ISSN: 0041-0683
  • Serial URL: http://www.tecmagazine.com/

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Behavior; Demand; Development; Evaluation; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Methodology; Policy; Technology; Transportation policy; Travel; Travel demand
• Geographic Terms: United Kingdom; United States
• ITRD Terms: 285: Demand (econ); 9013: Development; 132: Forecast; 698: Journey; 6473: Mathematical model; 173: Policy; 3855: Technology; 8119: United Kingdom; 8122: USA
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Policy; I71: Traffic Theory;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00096728
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Sep 30 1975 12:00AM