A COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF INTERCITY MODAL-SPLIT MODELS

Proposals for improved intercity transportation service, ranging from improved high-speed rail service to short take-off and landing or restricted take-off and landing air service, have been advanced for many intercity corridors in the United States. Transportation planners have been called on to forecast patronage and revenue of new transportation services and the diversion from existing services. Frequently, however, new travel surveys or model development is not possible, and reliance must be placed on existing models and secondary data sources. This provides a comparative evaluation of seven intercity modal-split models that have been developed in the last 5 years and recommends models for application in intercity transportation sketch planning analyses. The models discussed are evaluated in terms of their ability to replicate the observed travel patterns and in terms of their implied elasticities for the rail mode. Model CN27 was selected as the best overall model. It is stratified by purpose, which creates a data requirement that cannot always be reliably fulfilled. Thus, unstratified model CN22, second best among those tested, is recommended for use when base year travel data on trip purpose are unavailable.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1974/526/526-007.pdf
• Summary URL:
  • https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=A+COMPARATIVE+EVALUATION+OF+INTERCITY+MODAL-SPLIT+MODELS&author=J.+Bennett&author=R.+Ellis&author=J.+Prokopy&author=M.+Cheslow&publication_year=1974
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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  Transportation Research Board

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• Authors:
  • Bennett, John C
  • Ellis, Raymond H
  • Prokopy, John C
  • Cheslow, Melvyn D
• Conference:
  • 53rd Annual Meeting of the Highway Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
  • Date: 1974-1-21 to 1974-1-25
• Publication Date: 1974

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 83-92
• Monograph Title: TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 526
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Evaluation; Forecasting; Intercity transportation; Mathematical models; Modal split; Railroad transportation; Revenues; Ridership; Transportation planning; Travel patterns; Trip purpose
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Subject Areas: Finance; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Railroads;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00096447
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309023734
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Jul 15 1975 12:00AM