ESTIMATING THE DEMAND FOR SHORT-HAUL AIR TRANSPORT SYSTEMS

To evaluate the feasibility of novel systems for short-haul air transportation requires an estimation of the market share potential for various configurations of such system. This paper deals with the development of a model for estimating the market share that various short take-off and landing (STOL) system configurations can be expected to capture in a high-density, short-haul air travel corridor. The process by which travelers in the corridor choose among different routes serving the corridor is studied. Variables such as line-haul travel times, schedule frequencies, and fares are studied. Traveler's choice is modeled in terms of these variables in a probabilistic manner. Such a formulation allows the aggregation of travelers into groups for the purpose of demand analysis. The model is calibrated on the basis of data on travel characteristics in the 500-mile corridor connecting the San Francisco Bay and Los Angeles metropolitan areas. System configurations include STOLports located at various points within the region and varying schedule frequencies and air fares. Alternative strategies of diverting short-haul air traffic from congested hub airports to STOLports are also studied. The calibrated choice model is combined with a total travel forecasting model to provide a forecasting procedure for estimating the demand potential for STOL transportation systems. The calibrated models are used to study various STOL system configurations and to estimate their market potential.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1974/526/526-001.pdf
• Summary URL:
  • https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=ESTIMATING+THE+DEMAND+FOR+SHORT-HAUL+AIR+TRANSPORT+SYSTEMS&author=A.+Kanafani&author=S.+FAN&publication_year=1974
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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  Transportation Research Board

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• Authors:
  • Kanafani, Adib K
  • FAN, SHING-LEUNG
• Conference:
  • 53rd Annual Meeting of the Highway Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
  • Date: 1974-1-21 to 1974-1-25
• Publication Date: 1974

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 1-15
• Monograph Title: TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 526
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air transportation; Estimating; Fares; Forecasting; Market research; Mathematical models; Scheduling; Short haul; STOL aircraft; Transportation; Travel demand; Travel time; V/STOL aircraft
• Uncontrolled Terms: Transportation models
• Subject Areas: Operations and Traffic Management; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00096441
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309023734
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Jul 15 1975 12:00AM