DELPHIC PREDICTIONS AND CROSS IMPACT SIMULATION

The writers review two techniques that are potentially useful tools in urban and regional planning. These techniques are the Delphi method for obtaining subjective predictions about a changing future through a panel of experts and Cross-Impact Simulation for combining a number of discrete subjective forecasts with a number of similar related forecasts to produce alternative descriptions of the future. The potential of this class of techniques for planners & engineers who are involved in managing the future is pointed out. The use of the techniques is specifically relevant to situations where subjective judgements have to be made about complex interrelated events. The paper presents mathematical examples of the utilization of these two complementary methods. /Author/

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/07339488
• Corporate Authors:

  American Society of Civil Engineers

  345 East 47th Street
  New York, NY  United States  10017-2398
• Authors:
  • DAJANI, J S
  • Gilbert, G
• Publication Date: 1975-5

Media Info

• Pagination: p. 49-59
• Serial:
  • Journal of Urban Planning and Development
  • Volume: 101
  • Issue Number: UP1
  • Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
  • ISSN: 0733-9488
  • EISSN: 1943-5444
  • Serial URL: http://ascelibrary.org/journal/jupddm

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: City planning; Forecasting; Mathematical analysis; Methodology; Regression analysis
• Uncontrolled Terms: Subjective analysis
• Subject Areas: Administration and Management; Data and Information Technology; Highways;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00095984
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: ASCE 11316 Proc Paper
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jul 2 1975 12:00AM