A SYSTEM MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE EFFECT OF ENERGY RESOURCES ON URBAN MODAL SPLIT

USING REGIONAL AND STATE LEVEL DATA, INCLUDING OBSERVATIONS DURING THE RECENT ENERGY CRISIS, THE METHODOLOGY AND FIRST GENERATION OF A SYSTEM MODEL FOR PREDICTING IMPACT LEVELS OF FUEL SHORTAGES UPON MODAL SPLIT ARE REPORTED. THE DATA TO SUCH A SYSTEM MODEL HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF AN INPUT DISTURBANCE IN A STEADY-STATE TREND. OF IMPORTANCE IS THE LONG TERM EFFECT IF THE DISTURBANCE BECOMES A REGULAR INPUT. THE SPECIFIC CASE REPORTED IS AN ANALYSIS IN THE TUCSON (ARIZONA) REGION OF THE FLUCTUATIONS IN TRAVEL DEMAND IN RELATION TO POPULATION, ECONOMIC CONDITION AND FUEL AVAILABILITY INDICATORS. OF MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE IS THE MODELING TECHNIQUES' ABILITY TO DETECT DIFFERENTIAL SHIFTS TO PUBLIC TRANSIT DURING THE RECENT REDUCTION IN GASOLINE AVAILABILITY. /AUTHOR/TRRL/

• Corporate Authors:

  Pergamon Press, Incorporated

  Maxwell House, Fairview Park
  Elmsford, NY  United States  10523
• Authors:
  • Nizlek, M C
  • Duckstein, L
• Publication Date: 1974-10

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 329-334
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research /UK/
  • Volume: 8
  • Issue Number: 4/5
  • Publisher: Pergamon Press, Incorporated

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Demand; Energy; Forecasting; Fuels; Mathematical models; Modal split; Supply; Travel; Urban areas
• Old TRIS Terms: Fuel shortage
• ITRD Terms: 285: Demand (econ); 213: Energy; 132: Forecast; 3850: Fuel; 698: Journey; 6473: Mathematical model; 675: Modal split; 313: Urban area
• Subject Areas: Energy; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I71: Traffic Theory; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00095860
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Jul 2 1982 12:00AM