MIDAS: A TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING TOOL BASED ON A DYNAMIC MODEL SYSTEM OF HOUSEHOLD DEMOGRAPHICS AND MOBILITY: FINAL REPORT

This report deals with MIDAS: a travel demand forecasting tool based on a dynamic model system of household demographics and mobility. A summary is given of the cumulative results of the MIDAS development effort. It is based on the 1989 report, however many sections have extensively been modified and new sections have been added. Section 3 was modified to incorporate new results of household type transition analyses. Section 5.5 was introduced to describe the new income models used in MIDAS. In section 6 the trip generation models have entirely been redeveloped, and a new modal split model and travel distance models have been introduced. Section 7 is a new section which presents the results of a validation analysis of the mobility model components. Sections 8 and 9, also new sections, contain the forecasting results. The project is an innovative approach based on entirely new concepts and methods. MIDAS itself has been revised numerous times with a number of parameters introduced and updated to better replicate household evolution and represent more extended ranges of scenarios. The primary objective of the project is to demonstrate that travel demand forecasting using micro-simulation with dynamic models and parameters estimated by the Dutch Panel data, is practical and meaningful. The objective has been fulfilled. Moreover, MIDAS is now able to entertain endless "what if" questions. With its forthcoming PC version, MIDAS could be utilized extensively as a versatile decision support tool for Dutch transportation planning and policy analysis. However, the software should be tested rigorously prior to its distribution to other users.

• Corporate Authors:

  MINISTERIE VAN VERKEER EN WATERSTAAT, PROJECTBUREAU INTEGRALE VERKEERS- EN VERVOERSTUDIES PBIVVS

  KONINGINNEGRACHT 16-21
  'S-GRAVENHAGE,   Netherlands  2514 AB
• Authors:
  • Kitamura, R
  • Goulias, K G
• Publication Date: 1992-3

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: 163 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Computer programs; Driver licenses; Education; Forecasting; Households; Income; Jobs; Mathematical models; Mobility; Modal split; Motor vehicles; Ownership; Public transit; Simulation; Travel; Trip generation; Vehicle miles of travel
• Geographic Terms: Netherlands
• Subject Areas: Public Transportation; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00629531
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Institute for Road Safety Research, SWOV
• Files: ITRD
• Created Date: Jun 14 1993 12:00AM