MODIFYING GENERALIZED COST TO DEAL WITH UNCERTAIN TRAVEL TIMES . TRANSPORTATION PLANNING RESEARCH COLLOQUIUM 1990. MEASURING, MODELLING, MONITORING. NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN RESEARCH METHODS. THE HAGUE, NOVEMBER 29-30, 1990. VOLUME I AND II

MODIFICATIE VAN DE GEGENERALISEERDE KOSTEN HANDELEND OVER ONZEKERE REISTIJDEN

Standard modelling and appraisal methods are based on mean journey times and costs. However, it is known that in practice travel times are subject to uncertainty, and that the level of uncertainty is likely to rise as travel becomes increasingly subject to capacity constraints. Under uncertainty, the use of the mean journey times can only be justified where travellers do not care whether they arrive early or late, generally an unreasonable assumption. Using a micro-economic framework, a theory of departure time choice under conditions of uncertainty is developed, introducing the concepts of early and late time explicitly. An expression for the inconvenience of uncertainty can be derived in this way. It is suggested that, with care, Stated Preference techniques can be used to measure the inconvenience of uncertainty empirically. The conclusion is that a way forward exists to expand the definition of generalized cost to include the uncertainty of journey times, and that this could lead to improved models and evaluation. (Author/TRRL)

• Corporate Authors:

  Colloguium Vervoersplanologisch Speurwerk

  P.O. Box 45
  Delft,   Netherlands 
• Authors:
  • BATES, J
• Publication Date: 1990

Language

• Dutch

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: p. 21-42
• Serial:
  • Publication of: Colloquium Vervoersplanologisch Speurwerk
  • Publisher: Colloguium Vervoersplanologisch Speurwerk

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Conferences; Costs; Research; Transportation; Transportation planning; Travel time; Uncertainty
• Geographic Terms: Netherlands
• Old TRIS Terms: Transportation research
• ITRD Terms: 8525: Conference; 632: Congestion (traffic); 224: Cost; 9010: Delay; 697: Journey time; 6473: Mathematical model; 6136: Measurement; 9048: Modification; 9072: Selection; 9078: Theory
• Subject Areas: Economics; Planning and Forecasting; Research; Society; Transportation (General);

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00619785
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Institute for Road Safety Research, SWOV
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Mar 31 1992 12:00AM