ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF ACCIDENT DISTRIBUTIONS

This paper deals with the econometrics of car accidents, that is the estimation of the relative importance or significance of the factors explaining the number of accidents in a given period of time on an individual basis. The study uses a data base consisting of the accident record and characteristics of individual drivers. Individual characteristics are considered exogenous or predetermined and may or may not be significant factors in explaining the number of accidents. Four categorical models (linear probability, probit, logic and multinomial logit) and 4 count data models (Poisson and negative binomial models with and without individual characteristics in the regression component) are estimated. The statistical results are then applied to a model of insurance rating in the presence of moral hazard.

• Corporate Authors:

  University of Montreal

  Center for Research on Transportation (CRT)/CIRRELT
  P.O. Box 6128, Station Centre-ville
  Montreal, Quebec  Canada  H3C 3J7
• Authors:
  • Boyer, M
  • Dionne, G
  • Vanasse, C
• Publication Date: 1990

Media Info

• Pagination: 62 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobiles; Crash causes; Crash investigation; Crash records; Crashes; Driver records; Drivers; Econometric models; Econometrics; Human characteristics; Logits; Poisson distributions; Poisson ratio; Probability theory; Probits; Regression analysis
• Uncontrolled Terms: Driver characteristics
• Old TRIS Terms: Driver investigation; Poissons distribution; Poissons ratio
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Economics; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; Society; I83: Accidents and the Human Factor;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00605476
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Mar 31 1991 12:00AM