FATALITY RISK CURVES FOR TRANSPORTING CHLORINE AND LIQUEFIED PETROLEUM GAS BY TRUCK AND RAIL (WITH DISCUSSION AND CLOSURE)

When compared to observations from historical data, statistical risks often reflect significant discrepancies. The basic problem concerns the way objective statistical risks are represented. Risk is defined as the product of the probability of an incident and its consequent damages, averaged over all possible outcomes. Statistical risk can be expressed more completely as a relationship between the frequency of occurrence of an event (F) and the number of people affected (N). Because F-N curves represent the entire risk spectrum associated with each incident, they can also be used to estimate anticipated interval times between consequent events for the transport of a given class of dangerous commodity. A number of F-N curves for the road and rail transport of chlorine and liquefied petroleum gas were established. These results were compared with F-N curves reported elsewhere in the literature. Discrepancies between statistical fatalities from the risk model estimates and observed fatalities from the data are explained in terms of the expected interval times between designated events for each mode and type of material.

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• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper appears in Transportation Research Record No. 1264, Transportation of Hazardous Materials 1990. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Authors:
  • Saccomanno, F F
  • Shortreed, John H
  • Mehta, R
• Discussers:
  • Purdy, Grant
• Publication Date: 1990

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 29-41
• Monograph Title: Transportation of hazardous materials 1990
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 1264
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Chlorine; Fatalities; Hazardous materials; Hazards; Highway transportation; Liquefied petroleum gas; Mathematical models; Railroad transportation; Risk assessment; Statistical analysis
• Uncontrolled Terms: Liquid petroleum gas; Models
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Railroads; Safety and Human Factors; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00601393
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309050219
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Nov 30 1990 12:00AM