AGGREGATE TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING FROM DISAGGREGATED BEHAVIORAL MODELS

This paper derives an expression for obtaining aggregate (interzonal) travel forecasts given a probit disaggregate demand model and zonal averages and intrazonal variances of the independent variables. It also derives expressions for the biases in aggregate model calibrations resulting from zonal homogeneity assumptions in the variables. The conditions under which these biases are important are discussed. Expressions are also determined for obtaining consistent, unbiased estimates for both aggregate and disaggregate models that take into account nonhomogeneous zones and practical data limitations.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1975/534/534-003.pdf
• Record URL:
  • https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=AGGREGATE+TRAVEL+DEMAND+FORECASTING+FROM+DISAGGREGATED+BEHAVIORAL+MODELS&author=D.+McFadden&author=F.+Reid&publication_year=1975
• Availability:
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Traveler Behavior and Values. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

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  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • McFadden, Daniel
  • Reid, Fred
• Conference:
  • 54th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia
  • Date: 1975-1-13 to 1975-1-17
• Publication Date: 1975

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 24-37
• Monograph Title: TRAVEL BEHAVIOR AND VALUES
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 534
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Behavior; Cluster analysis; Disaggregate analysis; Forecasting; Probits; Statistical bias; Travel demand; Variables; Zoning
• Old TRIS Terms: Behavioral objectives; Disaggregate models
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00099671
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309023858
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Nov 18 1975 12:00AM