USING TRANSPORT MODELS TO FORECAST A LONG RANGE MARKET

This essay sets out the conclusions of a study to estimate the likely overseas market for automated personal rapid transit systems. The UK share of that market is inferred. Personal rapid transit and more conventional systems are considered as competitors for the world market. A survey was made (by questionnaire) of planning officers in 151 cities in 22 countries, to find out their long-range plans, and to gather general data. The data were used to predict demand for prt as a function of location, size of city, etc. In the next 10 years U.S. cities will constitute the sole market; cities elsewhere will lag 5 to 10 years behind. A dynamic model was developed to predict the share of public transport won by a new system. Auto-taxi is best if car-drivers are to be attracted. A probabilistic market model was used to estimate world and U.K. markets. The author warns that development of these markets depends on political and social, rather than technological, forces. A distribution is presented, showing pessimistic and optimistic forecasts of the world market for PRT. Good agreement with two independent estimates is shown. The U.K. share of the market is discussed, although no actual estimate is given. /TRRL/

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Programmes Analysis Unit.
• Corporate Authors:

  Her Majesty Stationary Office

  49 High Holborn
  London WC1V 6HB,   England 
• Authors:
  • Love, P E
• Publication Date: 1974

Language

• English

Media Info

• Features: Figures;
• Pagination: p. 40-54

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automated guideway transit; Demand; Economic factors; Economics; Forecasting; International; Mathematical models; Mode choice; Passengers; Personal rapid transit; Probability; Public transit; Socioeconomic factors; Taxicabs; Transportation; Travel demand; Urban areas
• Geographic Terms: United Kingdom; United States
• Old TRIS Terms: Automated guideway systems
• ITRD Terms: 1020: Container (freight); 285: Demand (econ); 263: Economics of transport; 132: Forecast; 9034: International; 6473: Mathematical model; 6534: Probability; 744: Public transport; 1148: Taxi; 8119: United Kingdom; 313: Urban area; 8122: USA
• Subject Areas: Economics; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Society; Transportation (General); I10: Economics and Administration; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00125148
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport and Road Research Laboratory (TRRL)
• Report/Paper Numbers: No. PAU R&D Rept.
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Nov 18 1981 12:00AM