PREDICTING INTERSECTION ACCIDENTS
This report describes a study undertaken by the Ministry of Transport in order to evaluate various models for the prediction of accident occurrence at intersections. Variables considered were: traffic volumes, vehicular manoeuver times, traffic conflicts and violations. Significant correlations were found between accidents and conflicts, accidents and intersection approach volumes and accidents as a function of a time-volume exposure index. While the data tended to support the hypothesis that accidents and conflicts are related, the correlations achieved were not of a high order and it was found that the concept of vehicular conflicts, in its present form, is not likely to result in a viable tool for the analysis of individual intersections. A possible exception to this general conclusion may be in the area of identifying hazard spots within an intersection. It was found that the best accident predictor models were those based on vehicular volumes. The inclusion of a time exposure factor, while not improving the overall correlation, nevertheless gave indications of explaining some accident variance in situations where consideration of volume alone was insufficient.
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Corporate Authors:
Society of Automotive Engineers
485 Lexington Avenue
New York, NY United States 10017 -
Authors:
- Cooper, P J
- Publication Date: 1973
Media Info
- Features: Figures; Photos; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 96 p.
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Approach lanes; Automated vehicle control; Crash analysis; Crash exposure; Crash investigation; Forecasting; High risk locations; Intersections; Maneuverability; Traffic conflicts; Traffic crashes; Traffic volume
- Uncontrolled Terms: Violations
- Old TRIS Terms: Intersection approach
- Subject Areas: Highways; Safety and Human Factors;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 00095496
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: Highway Safety Research Institute
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Jul 2 1975 12:00AM