An application of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the problem of designing a water retention dike on karst terrain is presented. Qualitative descriptions and observations ordinarily provided by preliminary geologic and geotechnical investigations are expressed in probabilistic terms using simple probability models, which are then used to compare various strategies for exploration and for mitigating sinkhole hazards. The application presented deals with circumstances of unusually great uncertainty and consequences, where ambiguous inferences from available information might not otherwise have been satisfactorily resolved by more informal design decision-making methods. The application emphasizes the use of PRA to express judgmentally based assessments. The role of judgment in both evaluating and reducing risk may be far more important than statistical characterizations of parameter uncertainty, particularly where geologic factors dominate foundation uncertainty and mechanisms not amenable to quantitative analysis control dam safety.

Media Info

  • Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: p. 819-835
  • Serial:

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00485167
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jun 30 1989 12:00AM