RISK ANALYSIS FOR DAM DESIGN IN KARST

An application of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) to the problem of designing a water retention dike on karst terrain is presented. Qualitative descriptions and observations ordinarily provided by preliminary geologic and geotechnical investigations are expressed in probabilistic terms using simple probability models, which are then used to compare various strategies for exploration and for mitigating sinkhole hazards. The application presented deals with circumstances of unusually great uncertainty and consequences, where ambiguous inferences from available information might not otherwise have been satisfactorily resolved by more informal design decision-making methods. The application emphasizes the use of PRA to express judgmentally based assessments. The role of judgment in both evaluating and reducing risk may be far more important than statistical characterizations of parameter uncertainty, particularly where geologic factors dominate foundation uncertainty and mechanisms not amenable to quantitative analysis control dam safety.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/07339410
• Corporate Authors:

  American Society of Civil Engineers

  345 East 47th Street
  New York, NY  United States  10017-2398
• Authors:
  • Vick, S G
  • Bromwell, L G
• Publication Date: 1989-6

Media Info

• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 819-835
• Serial:
  • Journal of Geotechnical Engineering
  • Volume: 115
  • Issue Number: 6
  • Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
  • ISSN: 0733-9410

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Dams; Decision making; Dikes; Exploration; Mathematical models; Probability; Risk analysis; Safety; Sinkholes; Structural design; Uncertainty
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models; Probabilistic analysis
• Old TRIS Terms: Dam design; Geological explorations
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Geotechnology; Highways; Marine Transportation; Safety and Human Factors; I42: Soil Mechanics;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00485167
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jun 30 1989 12:00AM