FORECASTING FOR AVIATION SYSTEM PLANNING

Aviation system planning forecasts, unlike other aviation forecasts, require information on the geographic distribution of activity to make possible evaluation of the trade-offs between nearby facilities in the attraction of activity, such as originating air passengers or based general aviation aircraft. To obtain forecasts of this geographic distribution, it is necessary to develop base demographic data and forecasts for defined geographic areas within the study area. Using these demographic forecasts, bottom-up forecasts of aviation activity can be generated, often controlled by a top-down control total. These activity forecasts are then assigned to airports on the basis of accessibility and service level considerations, using either manual or computerized methods. Demographic forecasts for small geographic areas are difficult to obtain and often must be generated from current data and larger area forecasts. The exceptions to this are the urban transportation planning data sources for most urban areas. The federally mandated urban transportation planning process includes the forecasting of variables that affect urban travel at a Transportation Analysis Zone level. Aviation forecasts were recently completed as part of the Continuing Florida Aviation System Planning Process and the Ohio Aviation System Plan Update, using the techniques of top-down forecasts controlling bottom-up distributions, with the bottom-up data based, for the urban areas, on urban transportation planning data and, for the rural areas, on current data and regional forecasts.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1987/1147/1147-005.pdf
• Record URL:
  • https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=FORECASTING+FOR+AVIATION+SYSTEM+PLANNING&author=D.+Rubin&author=N.+Lerner&publication_year=1988
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/030904653X
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Aviation Economics and Forecasting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Authors:
  • Rubin, David
  • Lerner, Neil D
• Conference:
  • 67th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
  • Location: Washington District of Columbia, United States
  • Date: 1988-1-11 to 1988-1-14
• Publication Date: 1988

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: References;
• Pagination: pp 31-33
• Monograph Title: Air transportation issues
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 1147
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Aviation; Case studies; Data collection; Demographics; Forecasting; Systems analysis
• Uncontrolled Terms: Data sources
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00476127
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 030904653X
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Sep 30 1988 12:00AM