PAVEMENT CONDITION DATA ANALYSIS AND MODELING

To maximize the benefits of pavement management, a reliable method of pavement condition forecasting is extremely important. Described is a methodology for pavement condition data analysis and a modeling technique for use in the PAVER pavement management system. The latest PAVER data bases from 18 civilian agencies and 2 military installations were used to verify this methodology. Several models were developed for each location to account for the wide variety of factors affecting pavement performance. Relevant information of the pavement sections was organized into pavement families; a family is defined by the pavement type, pavement rank, and pavement functional classification. A screening procedure was designed to examine the data retrieved for obvious errors. A statistical outliers analysis was implemented to detect any unusual observations. The family model accepted for pavement condition index prediction was developed from the pavement AGE variable averaged every 3 years to obtain a representative point for each 3-year period. This point was then used in the final polynomial regression analysis. Pavement condition forecasting for each section was accomplished by customizing the prediction depending on the present condition in relation to the family curve. The family models were designed for continuous update as more data are gathered for a given location and entered in the PAVER data base.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1986/1070/1070-015.pdf
• Summary URL:
  • https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=PAVEMENT+CONDITION+DATA+ANALYSIS+AND+MODELING&author=M.+Nunez&author=M.+Shahin&publication_year=1986
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309040647
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Monitoring, Evaluation, and Data Storage. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Nunez, Maria Margarita
  • Shahin, Mohamed Y
• Publication Date: 1986

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 125-132
• Monograph Title: PAVEMENT RESPONSE, EVALUATION, AND DATA COLLECTION
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 1070
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Data analysis; Evaluation; Forecasting; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical models; Pavement management systems; Pavement performance; Pavements; Regression analysis; Statistical analysis
• Uncontrolled Terms: Pavement conditions
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Design; Highways; Pavements; I22: Design of Pavements, Railways and Guideways;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00474271
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309040647
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Oct 31 1987 12:00AM