THE PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION OF CONSTRUCTION PERFORMANCE IN HARD ROCK TUNNELS

This report concerns the development of a computer-based simulation model which can be used to evaluate costs and risks associated with hard rock tunneling. This report is the 4th in a series of reports dealing with this subject. The report examines conventional cost estimating procedures and concludes that there are two major inadequacies which exist: (1) the inability to account for the uncertainty in suspected geologic conditions at the tunnel depth; and (2) the inability to quantify the effect of uncertain geology and the effect of the additional uncertainty in productivity of men and equipment on the performance of a construction strategy. The model employs techniques of probability and simulation to avoid these two shortcomings.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Also pub. as Tunnel Construction-4.
• Corporate Authors:

  Massachusetts Institute of Technology

  Department of Civil Engineering, 77 Massachusetts Avenue
  Cambridge, MA  United States  02139

  National Science Foundation

  1800 G Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20550
• Authors:
  • Minott, C H
• Publication Date: 1974-7

Media Info

• Pagination: 198 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Analysis; Construction; Construction equipment; Construction management; Cost estimating; Costs; Engineering geology; Estimates; Estimating; Excavation and tunneling; Probability theory; Rocks; Simulation; Subways; Tunneling; Underground structures
• Uncontrolled Terms: Cost analysis
• Old TRIS Terms: Rock tunneling; Subway construction; Underground supporting
• Subject Areas: Bridges and other structures; Construction; Data and Information Technology; Finance; Geotechnology; Highways; Public Transportation; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00091758
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Report/Paper Numbers: R74-47 Tech. Rpt.
• Contract Numbers: NSF-GI-34029
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Sep 10 1981 12:00AM