FORECASTS OF TRAFFIC IN PROSPECT. BASIS AND RESULTS OF INVESTIGATION OF THE ACCURACY OF LONG TERM FORECASTS OF TRAFFIC VARIABLES

VERKEHRSPROGNOSEN IM PROSPEKTIVEN TEST. GRUNDLAGEN UND ERGEBNISSE EINER UNTERSUCHUNG DER GENAUIGKEIT VON LANGFRISTPROGNOSEN VERKEHRSWIRTSCHAFTLICHER LEITVARIABLEN

The central subject of the investigation submitted here is the analysis of the accuracy of traffic forecasts by a comparison of the forecasts with the actual values occurring: the "prospect test". This test meets the frequently required and rarely fulfilled requirement for controls of success in the planning process. It supplies an index for the quality of planning, the weak plates, theoretical and empirical deficits and particularly for the limits of a holistic rational planning. The empirical analysis of the certainty of achieving traffic forecasts is, on the one hand, placed in the context of the "classic" infrastructure theory and then (in an unusual perspective) in the context of polar planning theory concepts of synoptic reality, and on the other hand is placed within incrementalism.

• Corporate Authors:

  Technische Universitaet Berlin

  Institut fuer Verkehrsplanung und Verkehrswegebau
  Berlin,   Germany 
• Authors:
  • Schuehle, U
• Publication Date: 1986

Language

• German

Media Info

• Pagination: 590 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Accuracy; Planning; Time duration; Traffic forecasting
• Uncontrolled Terms: Long term
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00473197
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Report/Paper Numbers: No. 18
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Sep 30 1987 12:00AM