TRAFFIC VOLUME FORECASTING METHODS FOR RURAL STATE HIGHWAYS. FINAL REPORT

Accurate forecasting of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) is vital to transportation planning. The design of roads and analysis of alternative highway projects are dependent on these forecasts. This study builds on previous efforts found in the field of rural traffic forecasting. The study combines careful statistical analysis with subjective judgment to develop models that are reliable and easy to use. This study developed two different kinds of models -- aggregate and disaggregate -- to forecast traffic volumes at rural locations in Indiana's state highway network. These models are developed using traffic data from continuous count stations in rural locations, and data for various county, state and national level demographic and economic predictor variables. Aggregate models are based on the functional classification of a highway, whereas the disaggregate models are location-specific. These models forecast future year AADT as a function of base year AADT, modified by the various predictor variables. The combination of aggregate and disaggregate models will provide reliable traffic forecasts. The number of predictor variables employed in the models was kept to a minimum. The statistical analysis also found that the predictor variables are statistically significant; no other variables will provide significant predictive power to the models. The models developed in this study provide higher R-squared values than those found in the literature, and more refined statistical techniques reinforce the choice of variables used in the models. A six-step process to obtain the future year AADT by employing both aggregate and disaggregate models is presented to assist in the model's implementation.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.5703/1288284314120
• Corporate Authors:

  Joint Highway Research Project

  Civil Engineering Building, Purdue University
  West Lafayette, Indiana,   United States  47907

  Indiana Department of Highways

  Indianapolis, IN  United States 

  Federal Highway Administration

  1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Authors:
  • Fricker, J D
  • SAHA, S K
• Publication Date: 1987-5-27

Media Info

• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 288 p.
• Serial:
  • Purdue University/Indiana State Highway Comm JHRP
  • Publisher: Joint Highway Research Project

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Annual average daily traffic; Cluster analysis; Disaggregate analysis; Reliability; Rural highways; Statistical analysis; Traffic forecasting; Traffic volume; Variables
• Old TRIS Terms: Aggregate models; Disaggregate models
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; I71: Traffic Theory;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00472701
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: FHWA/IN/JHRP-86-20, JHRP-86/20
• Files: ITRD, TRIS, ATRI, USDOT, STATEDOT
• Created Date: Aug 31 1987 12:00AM