PREDICTING ANNUAL TRANSIT FARE REVENUE FROM MIDYEAR RESULTS

The paper explores the possibility of predicting total annual revenues for transit systems based on the revenue collected part of the way through the year. Six Wisconsin cities representing three city sizes large, medium, and small--were used as a case study. A single prediction, along with the limits of the 95 percent confidence interval, were computed. The percentage errors were calculated and the distribution of these errors was examined. Findings revealed that the proposed method is very applicable to the Milwaukee County Transit System since it results in a prediction of annual revenue that will have less than five percent error 95 percent of the time. The method was also found to be applicable to Wisconsin small cities. In the case of the only medium size city, the percentage error was higher due to anomalies in some of the data.

• Corporate Authors:

  Marquette University

  Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 1515 West Wisconsin Avenue
  Milwaukee, WI  United States  53233
• Authors:
  • Guenthner, R P
  • Nasser, H K
  • Seward, S
• Publication Date: 1986-4-11

Media Info

• Pagination: 29 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Accuracy; Case studies; Fares; Forecasting; Public transit; Revenues; Small cities
• Subject Areas: Economics; Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Society; I10: Economics and Administration;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00472873
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Report/Paper Numbers: NSF/ENG-86028
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Sep 30 1988 12:00AM